“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
That’s Amara’s Law, coined by futurist Roy Amara.
In simple terms:
– When a new technology appears, people often get overly excited, expect immediate results and instant revolutions, then get disappointed.
– However, over time, the technology reshapes society in ways much bigger than anyone expected.
For example, in the ’90s, people thought the web would kill all physical stores overnight. It didn’t happen. But in the long run, the internet changed everything about how we work, shop, learn, and connect — way more profoundly than most people had imagined.
The short-term expectations of a new technology are fueled by the hype during its initial phase. This hype is often created by actors in the space who benefit from it. (Think tool creators, course creators, influencers, journalists, book writers, etc.)
It’s all the same in AI for PPC today.
Many actors in the space want us to believe AI is going to take over our jobs — in three years, if not earlier. Others want us to believe we can already completely outsource the task of creating the best campaign setup for our clients, without any human in the loop. And then, there are a lot of AI promises for easy quick wins, that, when seriously tested, only produce marginal gains when it comes to efficiency.
Here’s the thing: don’t let the current hype around AI misinform your expectations for the short-term gains, nor the long-term implications.
Keep your eye on AI, and create your own perspective. Here’s how you can do this today:
- List one AI promise you’ve heard last week
- Define a razor-sharp goal (KPI+target) that it must beat (e.g., conv/impr, CPA, hours saved)
- Set up an experiment and run a 30-day test
- Document results — good, bad, or “meh.”
- Decide: scale, refine, or scrap.
Repeat the test that failed today again, 6 months from now. (AI tech moves fast!)
That’s how you bypass hype and build your own perspective while preparing yourself and your job for the AI future.
– Nils